Todd Jay Leonard, Blog
Japan is currently experiencing a very serious crisis: a declining population. The rapid demographic changes that are occurring will have far-reaching and long-lasting repercussions on this country that will be felt for generations to come.
Unfortunately, there seems to be no reversal in sight of this troubling trend, which is further serving to perplex Japan’s leaders and academicians. It is a crisis that is unprecedented in the history of Japan.
For the first time in modern times, the number of babies born was fewer than people dying, meaning that the population is edging toward a configuration that makes it “top-heavy.” The number of aged citizens is outpacing the number of babies being born.
Experts are predicting that the declining number, which most likely will be in the tens of thousands in the next few years, will jump sharply into the hundreds of thousands by the time today’s babies are adults. This is in a country that has one of the highest life expectancies in the world.
A briskly growing “graying” population, coupled with the sharp decrease in births, signals social and economic disaster in the future if drastic steps to remedy the situation are not taken immediately. The socialized health system, as well as pensions for retirees, is at risk as the aging population drains the current funds with fewer future contributors on the horizon. As more and more Japanese continue to live well into their 80s, 90s and even 100s, the cost to care for these people will be put on the shoulders of today’s young workers.
Adding to the immediacy of the situation is the fact that beginning in 2007, and continuing through 2009, the bulk of the World War II Japanese baby-boom generation (who helped to fuel the system through their admirable work-ethic and prolific production of children) are reaching the mandatory retirement age for Japanese workers.
In the past, this system functioned smoothly because the number of deaths outpaced the number of new births, keeping the system “bottom-heavy.” Why is Japan’s population declining so rapidly?
There are a number of probable causes ... from a sense of freedom afforded women to pursue careers and to work during their child-bearing years, to the high cost of raising a child from cradle until they are financially independent.
There is no clear-cut reason as to why Japanese couples are opting to have less children (or none at all), but for sure it has been occurring for quite a while; the government certainly dropped the ball in trying to troubleshoot or reverse the trend at a time when it could have been corrected.
Hardest hit now are rural communities who are struggling to survive. Elementary schools are closing. Expectant mothers have a difficult time finding obstetricians because young doctors are opting to pursue residencies in fields that cater to the elderly.
Also, young people are leaving in droves for the bright lights of the big cities. These communities are left to make do with an aging citizenry, with no influx of young blood in sight, to carry on with the farming or “mom and pop” type of shops and businesses that in the past were mainstays in rural Japan.
Traditionally, Japan has always been a “saving” nation that allowed retirees to enjoy a happy and somewhat carefree retirement. This has also changed in recent years due to the economic collapse of the bubble economy of the late 1980s and the migration of children to the big cities.
In the past, children often returned to their hometowns after working a while in urban areas, but recently the trend has changed, and many are not returning to care for their aged parents.
Today, the elderly in Japan are spending more and more of their savings on daily living, health care and other age-related expenses that in the past was largely unnecessary because the oldest son and his family often cared for his parents in the ancestral home. With more and more families living apart from one another, this dynamic has changed tremendously in the past decade or so.
I predict three things will occur in Japan in the next few years:
n A sharp increase in taxes, especially sales tax. When I first came to Japan to live, there was no sales tax at all. The price on the product was the price you paid.
The “bubble” debacle of the late 80s forced the government to implement a moderate sales tax initially, which was increased to 5 percent. This will most likely, at the very least, be doubled to 10 percent, perhaps more.
n A raise in the amount of money people pay for socialized health care. The system here requires each worker to pay into the system and this amount is matched by the employer.
I love the socialized health care system because I can show my card at any clinic or hospital in Japan and receive immediate treatment. The cost per visit is nominal, but this will most likely rise to offset the total cost of health care for the elderly. With the “top-heavy” configuration, there just are not enough young people paying into the system to keep it solvent.
There must be an overhaul of the medical services that are now being dispensed in Japan. Japanese people have been conditioned to go to a doctor or a hospital at the drop of a hat for minor ailments like common colds and stomach aches.
Hospitals and doctors in Japan have a tendency to over prescribe medication and other expensive tests for relatively minor aches and pains. The current system makes it advantageous for them to do so because they receive money back from the government for every procedure performed.
Currently, for any surgery or invasive treatment, patients usually stay in the hospital for one month. In the United States, insurance companies want patients dismissed as soon as possible, sometimes on the same day as a surgery.
The system in place now must be reformed in Japan to make it more cost effective, efficient and solvent. Now that fewer and fewer elderly people are living with their children, placing the primary care of these people on the shoulders of the socialized health care system, excessive treatments must be stopped to save money for more serious ailments and diseases.
Many elderly people go to the doctor or hospital on a daily basis as a sort of “social” gathering to see friends and to chat. These people arrive in the early morning to get a place in line and to see their friends, which plugs up the system for those who are truly in need of medical care that is more urgent. This is a burden on a system that is already strained.
n A raise in the mandatory retirement age. Since retirees are living longer, often their quality of life is much better which allows them to work past the 60 to 65 retirement age.
Luckily, many older people in Japan prefer to work and are quite happy to do so. With people living into their 90s, retiring at 60 means that many people have a three decade retirement.
The declining population in Japan has many colleges and universities wringing their hands. Attracting enough students to fill its slots is a challenge now and will only get more competitive in the coming years as educational institutions of higher learning try to rethink their programs, doing what they can to stay afloat … my university included.
Finally, Japan will be forced to open its doors to more immigrants willing to relocate here to work. When this does happen, the face of Japan will change considerably. Within the next generation or so, Japan most likely will take on the appearance of a “mosaic” rather than the homogeneous face it now has.
Actually, it is already happening.
By TODD JAY LEONARD
Columnist
Japan’s declining population concerns future generations
Monday, May 22, 2006
